There are eight Best Picture nominees at the 91st Academy Awards—Black Panther, BlacKKKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born and Vice. Early critics’ awards began to favour Alfonso Cuaron’s Mexican drama Roma, but the industry awards (BAFTA, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes) have gathered momentum for other films.
Netflix original Roma has won the BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Directors Guild Award, and is shaping up to be the first foreign film to win Best Picture. Many felt the film’s streaming platform and cast of unknowns and non-professional actors would affect its chances. However, not only did Roma earn the leading ten nominations, it also registered amazingly well in the acting categories. Newcomer Yalitza Aparico was nominated for her role as the maid of a middle-class family, but the biggest surprise was her co-star Marina De Tavira (who didn’t show up at any precursors) getting in for best supporting actress. The fact that these ladies managed to sneak in is an indication that the love for Roma is truly there.
Bohemian Rhapsody’s shock win at the Golden Globes has led some to believe that the Queen biopic could also win at Oscar. However, Roma was absent from the Globes’ Best Drama Film category because it is reserved exclusively for English-language films, and Cuaron’s best director win gives the movie an edge. Despite becoming the highest-grossing music biopic of all time, Bohemian is missing Director and Screenplay nominations. Those two categories are crucial for a Best Picture win.
Meanwhile, the Producers Guild Awards presented best film of the year to Peter Farrelly’s Green Book (last year’s PGA went to Best Picture winner The Shape of Water). Farrelly is best known for broad comedies like Dumb & Dumber, and Green Book wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a probable Oscar contender before it premiered in September. With triple wins at the Globes (including Best Comedy Film), Green Book poses a possible threat to Roma. After all, it is the crowd-pleaser boasting two terrific performances from Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali, and a heart-warming message about overcoming prejudice. Ali has swept every supporting actor precursor and is locked for his second Oscar two years after Moonlight.
Marvel’s Black Panther has risen beyond its genre roots to become the first superhero movie nominated for Best Picture. It took home SAG’s top prize for best performance by an ensemble, an award that’s been given to Best Pictures like Spotlight, Argo, and Birdman. The problem with Panther’s seven nominations is none of them are for acting, directing or screenplay (it didn’t even get in for visual effects). The blockbuster’s best day is winning best costume and/or production design.
Best Actress is a race between The Wife’s Glenn Close, A Star is Born’s Lady Gaga and The Favourite’s Olivia Colman. Gaga and Close tied at Critics’ Choice, but Gaga’s support seems to have waned after Close’s victory at SAG and Globe. Close has the disadvantage of being The Wife’s only nomination, whereas Colman’s film has ten. For her performance of Anne, Queen of Great Britain, Colman has won the Globe and Critics’ Choice in the comedy acting categories, and she bested Close at BAFTA (where British actors are always the favourite). However, 71-year-old Close is long overdue—The Wife being her seventh nomination—and an Oscar for her is something everyone can feel good about. Colman will have another chance, and Gaga is still going to win for writing A Star is Born single, “Shallow”.
No one doubts that Rami Malek will take home Best Actor for playing Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. His strongest competition is Christian Bale, who won Critics’ Choice for playing former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in Vice. Both actors won the Golden Globes and both films, while critically-divisive, are nominated for Best Picture. Nothing can stop Malek after his SAG-BAFTA victory, and Bale has won before for The Fighter.
Supporting actress is the trickiest to predict. The early consensus was that Regina King of If Beale Street Could Talk was the frontrunner after picking up every critics’ awards. However, King has won Globe and Critics’ Choice, but missed nominations at BAFTA and SAG—just like Sylvester Stallone for Creed in 2016. Will King suffer the same fate as Stallone and lose to the BAFTA winner, Rachel Weisz from The Favourite? SAG winner Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) poses no threat because the Academy didn’t nominate her. Despite having two significant snubs, King is likely to win Oscar because there is support for Beale Street (three nominations including screenplay) and Weisz has won this category before.
BlacKKKlansman is the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay because writer-director Spike Lee, who has not won a competitive Oscar, delivered his best work since 1989’s Do The Right Thing. In a wide open Original Screenplay race, The Favourite comes out on top for spicing up the British period-drama with dark humour and acerbic dialogue. Best Picture and Director is Roma’s to lose
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